Office RFR CBD H1 2021

Office vacancy

Office vacancy across Australian CBD office market has increased over the last 12 months, albeit the divergent performance of Prime and Secondary stock has widened supporting the dominance of the flight-to-quality trend. We expect vacancy to peak across the CBD markets through the first half of 2022 as occupiers gain confidence through the recovery phase and start to unwind their decision making holding pattern. The focus will then shift to their office requirements and the space and environment needed to retain company culture, employee engagement and to attract and retain talent to drive the future growth of their business.

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Australian CBD Indexed Payroll Jobs Growth

The positive numbers we are seeing in the latest labour force data are pointing to a recovery in net absorption sooner than we initially anticipated, particularly in Sydney and Adelaide. Almost a year on from the first COVID-19 outbreak, payroll data to 13 February showed jobs growth was only 0.5% below that of a year ago. However, the pattern of job losses had not been equal across all industries.

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Sydney CBD Prime Yields v 10 yr bond rate & spread

Previous downturns have been a result of financial or economic disruption with property markets fuelling the boom, and peaks indicating inadequate risk priced into investments resulting in the spread between the bond rate and yields to drastically widen. The COVID-19 disruption saw a sharpening of global bond yields, allowing for the increasing risk to be priced in with minimal movement on prime yields globally.

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